REFINING ROULETTE -- Tricks? % chances, etc

[Lilly]

Alright. So my first attempt at refining my level 20 wizmage wand ended in sadness as I successfully upgraded to +1, then downgraded the next go round, failed again, then BROKE my weapon. (I used Blessed Elrue on my first success & the next failure, then just a regular Elrue bc I ran out of Blessed when it broke) LOL.

I saved up more money and bought a +3 wand, took a chance with a Lucky Lix and got it to +4. But now I'm too scared to go for more since I have no other weapon and not enough money atm to afford more.

So I'm wondering if there are any tips/tricks to being more successful other than using the better stones. I've heard the whole Lucky can double upgrade and blessed has less of a chance of breaking... but is that all? If you take more time between upgrades does that help? If you use a Blessed stone, then run out and use a regular one, is that bad for you?

Does anyone know?

Also: anyone know an approx. failure rate??? Do people break/fail MUCH more often than succeed?

(sorry asking a lot, I know, but I think a lot of people would like to know any of this stuff)