Enhancement patterns?

[Enraya]

I got my lvl 1 bow to +6 yesterday xD
For some reason, I counted failing over 40 times at +0 ...

Then I reset the enhancement thing, upgraded it to +3, and then failed another 40 times ...

And then I reset it again, got it to +6, and got 3 titles, LOL.

I got it on my third bow, and I haven't enhanced much before (I had the Apprentice Enhancer and Unlucky Enhancer before I started enhancing), and had no titles on. I just think that it's basically up to chance =/

Heehee, I don't suffer from enhancing addiction >D

[alexbre]

i think that there is a higher loss than upgrade rate, because they want ppl to buy stuff from the CS

[NotMyWay]

i dont believe that placing ur stone in a particular spot makes any difference...

also, before the star stops spinning, the fate of your item has already been decided from the moment u click "begin". (i know because sometimes the item disappears from my inventory before finishing enhancement, and when getting titles i get them as soon as i click begin. and no, logging out will not salvage your item)

Im just wondering did they deliberately make a system such that u cannot succeed until after a few items have been broken? any thoughts on this?

i wasnt afraid of failure, for i knew there was a price to pay to get an item to +9, and i dont upgrade unless i am sure that i can afford replacements. I just didnt expect to waste about 200 elrues and not even get an item to +6... (1 lix=3 elrue, 1 xir=3 lix=9elrue), especially when it took so much less the first time....

[Enraya]

Yeah, LOL, that's why whenever I see my item disappear from my inventory I'm already typing "/g NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" into the chat box xD

Maybe you were just unlucky? .____.

[Hessah]

well i was trying to get my hammer to +9...

i didnt wanna waste my dust... so i was like making/buying 1-2 Xirs, at a time.. and enhancing them separately.. then when they failed i switched character to make more xirs or go and buy more xirs...

i failed like 6-7 times in a row.. ran out of perfect stones...

so i decided that for the next batch, i decided i'm gonna hv all 10 xirs before trying...

and guess wat... TA-DA! i got my +9 on my 2nd Xir...

i've pretty much tried all the boxes... and i've enhanced many times trying to get a title... i'm pretty sure it's all random...

[NotMyWay]

Similar thing happened to me, at first when trying for +6 i made 10 lix. (whats the plural for lix? is it lix or lixs or lixes?) while i failed a few times, when i reached +6 i had a few leftovers (which i dumped into another low level bow). The next day i decided to make only 3-4 at a time to prevent leftovers, but that was when i started failing so many times in a row...

[viasta]

well, in BK, the start of the light up block will most likely end up or stay at the same end at the opposite end. Example if you put your elrue on top middle one, and the light up block starts at the bottom middle, most likely, it'll be end up at the opposite end or same end.

[Enraya]

The light up block always starts at where it should go if it succeeds ...

so if you put it at the top middle, it will always start at the bottom middle.

[toolrocket]

... If you don't think the wheel is fake think of it like this to get a +9 if we considered each event to have independent probability would give you 1 out of 134 Million chance of being successful...

In fact, without more information, there is no way to compute this probability - Amanda, how did you come up with that? Unless you know something the rest of us dont, the only way a probability that low would even make sense is if you meant that that was the probability of 9 consecutive successful enhancements.

The most reasonable assumption is that you have a 1/8 chance of success, a 1/8 chance of failure and a 1/8 chance of break (and it's probably dependent on level, stone type, etc). Given these assumptions, you would have a (1/8)^9 = 7.45x10^-9% chance of being successful 9 consecutive times (or in other words, slightly better than 7 in 1 trillion chance of successfully enhancing to +9 on the first try, all the way from +1 to +9).

7/1tril is still a bogus number though, because truly, each spin of the wheel is an indepent event with probably of success of 1/8 or 0.125 (or whatever outsparks sets it at).

Just like in roulette, the probability of the point being red or black is always 50% no matter how many reds or blacks came up before. It's always the same probability (actually it's a little less because of the zero and couble zer0).

so the real probability of getting up to +9 is 1. You will 100% definately get to +9 as long as you keep trying.

there's the math lesson from rocket, if you bothered to read it. i'm sure you have your own opinion, but the math is easy. bottom line is that i've been looking for a pattern since closed beta (infact i wrote a guide for it here somewhere). I dont think it exists and it still cost me about 250s to get my wep up to +9. so i recommend against it.