Originally Posted by Amanda2_0
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... If you don't think the wheel is fake think of it like this to get a +9 if we considered each event to have independent probability would give you 1 out of 134 Million chance of being successful...
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In fact, without more information, there is no way to compute this probability - Amanda, how did you come up with that? Unless you know something the rest of us dont, the only way a probability that low would even make sense is if you meant that that was the probability of 9 consecutive successful enhancements.
The most reasonable assumption is that you have a 1/8 chance of success, a 1/8 chance of failure and a 1/8 chance of break (and it's probably dependent on level, stone type, etc). Given these assumptions, you would have a (1/8)^9 = 7.45x10^-9% chance of being successful 9 consecutive times (or in other words, slightly better than 7 in 1 trillion chance of successfully enhancing to +9 on the first try, all the way from +1 to +9).
7/1tril is still a bogus number though, because truly, each spin of the wheel is an indepent event with probably of success of 1/8 or 0.125 (or whatever outsparks sets it at).
Just like in roulette, the probability of the point being red or black is always 50% no matter how many reds or blacks came up before. It's always the same probability (actually it's a little less because of the zero and couble zer0).
so the real probability of getting up to +9 is 1. You will 100% definately get to +9 as long as you keep trying.
there's the math lesson from rocket, if you bothered to read it. i'm sure you have your own opinion, but the math is easy. bottom line is that i've been looking for a pattern since closed beta (infact i wrote a guide for it here somewhere). I dont think it exists and it still cost me about 250s to get my wep up to +9. so i recommend against it.