Enhancement patterns?

NotMyWay · 02-05-2008, 03:16 PM

I wonder if there are any patterns with enhancing? yesterday i destroyed my item a few times while trying to enhance a low level bow to +6 (just to get a title, and make my production characters look nicer) and after some time, i changed my title from "Silent" to "Triumphant Enhancer". I succeeded after that, and failed (not destroyed) only once if i remember correctly.

I thought that my title might boost success rates, but today, i attempted to get another item to +6 again (this time, i wanted to get Enhancement God, which requires u to upgrade an item to +9). I tried to get another bow to +6 first in case of breakage. I failed many times, and I often switched characters to produce more enhancement stones.

I have heard rumours that for getting an item to +6, you will need to break a certain number of items first. I have never really believed those rumours, but either there is some truth to it, or random probablity hates me today

. I've been trying for a few hours already (my buffs expired a few times, and i had a storage character almost full of stones on one page, now its almost empty). (but random probablity gave me a lucky lix while i was mining for copper

). I wonder is there some pattern, like is it deliberately programmed that you must fail/break a few times to get to +6 (so that new players dont become rich overnight, and dont get so overconfident that they end up losing everything and quitting), or is it just "luck"?

Btw, the "give me ur weapon i enhance for u!!11" scam wont work on me.

**Spirit** · 02-05-2008, 03:26 PM

There has been many discussions on this and even some fishy information given out. But, I believe it boils down to the fact that NO there is not a pattern.
If there is any type of pattern it is: "if you enhance - you will break".

**Hyper** · 02-05-2008, 04:02 PM

Random numbers.

Amanda2_0 · 02-05-2008, 05:49 PM

Well the Enhancing wheel is not at all random, but follows no pattern either. What I mean by this is that the system decides weather or not you will be successful and when it does... makes no difference where you put the stone. For example I have shifted stone placement each time and got a success every single time and done this many times... in a random system the probability of that happening is outrageously unlikely and might as well be considered impossible. So why do they even have the wheel? To give you hope of course or at least make you feel in control of your luck. Also it adds a gambling addiction element, which does wonders to funding Outpark with sales of CS stones. If you don't think the wheel is fake think of it like this to get a +9 if we considered each event to have independent probability would give you 1 out of 134 Million chance of being successful. So this actually a good thing then that the wheel is not random and only your chance of success is random.

Mindspank · 02-05-2008, 06:00 PM

I can definetly confirm the gambling addiction element...

Where once I had 120 silver, now I have none. All thanks to enhancment.

I think we need an Enhancement Anonymous forum...

**Loveless** · 02-05-2008, 06:11 PM

Well, when I use the stone and I fail... I remember where the thing stopped and the next I put it on the opposite side of it. Works well enough for me. I've spoiled myself in BK cause you don't break your items.

Oh yes and...

Give me your weapon I'll enhance for you!!1!

Yes, I know I'm in Apoline. Shush.

Amanda2_0 · 02-05-2008, 06:11 PM

I agree we need a place for people suffering from addiction *Wonders where the 3g went* anyway where can I sign up?

NotMyWay · 02-06-2008, 02:36 AM

i dont believe that placing ur stone in a particular spot makes any difference...

also, before the star stops spinning, the fate of your item has already been decided from the moment u click "begin". (i know because sometimes the item disappears from my inventory before finishing enhancement, and when getting titles i get them as soon as i click begin. and no, logging out will not salvage your item)

Im just wondering did they deliberately make a system such that u cannot succeed until after a few items have been broken? any thoughts on this?

i wasnt afraid of failure, for i knew there was a price to pay to get an item to +9, and i dont upgrade unless i am sure that i can afford replacements. I just didnt expect to waste about 200 elrues and not even get an item to +6... (1 lix=3 elrue, 1 xir=3 lix=9elrue), especially when it took so much less the first time....

**Enraya** · 02-06-2008, 04:18 AM

Yeah, LOL, that's why whenever I see my item disappear from my inventory I'm already typing "/g NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" into the chat box xD

Maybe you were just unlucky? .____.

toolrocket · 02-06-2008, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by Amanda2_0

... If you don't think the wheel is fake think of it like this to get a +9 if we considered each event to have independent probability would give you 1 out of 134 Million chance of being successful...

In fact, without more information, there is no way to compute this probability - Amanda, how did you come up with that? Unless you know something the rest of us dont, the only way a probability that low would even make sense is if you meant that that was the probability of 9 consecutive successful enhancements.

The most reasonable assumption is that you have a 1/8 chance of success, a 1/8 chance of failure and a 1/8 chance of break (and it's probably dependent on level, stone type, etc). Given these assumptions, you would have a (1/8)^9 = 7.45x10^-9% chance of being successful 9 consecutive times (or in other words, slightly better than 7 in 1 trillion chance of successfully enhancing to +9 on the first try, all the way from +1 to +9).

7/1tril is still a bogus number though, because truly, each spin of the wheel is an indepent event with probably of success of 1/8 or 0.125 (or whatever outsparks sets it at).

Just like in roulette, the probability of the point being red or black is always 50% no matter how many reds or blacks came up before. It's always the same probability (actually it's a little less because of the zero and couble zer0).

so the real probability of getting up to +9 is 1. You will 100% definately get to +9 as long as you keep trying.

there's the math lesson from rocket, if you bothered to read it. i'm sure you have your own opinion, but the math is easy. bottom line is that i've been looking for a pattern since closed beta (infact i wrote a guide for it here somewhere). I dont think it exists and it still cost me about 250s to get my wep up to +9. so i recommend against it.