yeah but as i get there are mostly 2 spots where it'll land...1 is success another is breaking, rarely degrade or nothing.
Btw you can see if you broke the wep since the start of refining, the wep for example disappears from inv if you break :P if you keep your eye on that you wont be like GO GO GO DONT FAIL ME !! xD
+ another thing is making new chars to refine n see if you got it or broke/failed by seeing titles :P
just if you know that you failed or succeeded makes you feel better, atleast for me it does
