REFINING ROULETTE -- Tricks? % chances, etc
 

Hi Lilly,

"... but is that all? If you take more time between upgrades does that help?"

I heard someone start this rumor once over shout, and then people repeating it like it was fact. But in fact unless it was official game data this would be impossible to test, due to luck% factors. And that will probably the case with any numbers u get for success/fail rate etc..

think of flipping a coin, you would think 50%..50% right? have you ever flipped a coin a houndred time and see how that holds true?

On any given day you could flip head 90 times. So makes for anyone to test success rate rather difficult, as any trends could be coincidences.

So..if anyone gives u numbers, thy're probably BS, with that said, you were asking for a tip on enhancing so here's mine:

TIP Numero 1. Enhance smartly

I always enhance two weapons at time, always playing roulette with the one lowest level. That way you're never risking the maximum loss, and not doing repeat work. When your 2nd breaks? Wait around for another 2nd, and get that one caught up to your highest leveled enhanced weapon.

I know this probably sounds expensive, but if it seems like it, then that would be a good way to gauge if you're ready economically to be enhancing.

PROS:
It's the safest way to enhance, ensures you're always at top Weapon level, and never having to shout in eld "OMgz i just lost my main weapon (4.5s, 17s) u name it. :D

CONS:
just a little Expensive (but isn't more expensive and more painful when you lose your main weapon with nothing else good to use?)

This is the best one i can give ya.

That happened to me yesterday >_< I've got a Help The Wittle WizMage Fund, cuz I don't have enough money to even buy a basic wand from the merchant.

I think I'll start buying my items pre-enhanced from now on lol.

I already sold all of my staves >_< I'm selling a bunch of random items.

Good luck! ^^

I might bring that two weapon upgrade back into play. I haven't upgraded like that since I stopped playing RO two years ago. Over there, after +3 your equip could break at any time and there were no safety measures like Sprotects.

It's expensive but much safer.

Generally speaking, if you have the money, you should test run the enhancements for your class with lower-leveled items. I heard that refining can be different for each class.

For example, I blew off 500+ silvers at the end refining Stout Hammers (level 30 cleric weapon 17s each) in order to map them out...I know a pattern that seems to have a higher success rate, but when I applied that to wands...they broke.

If you can make Elrue and Lix, I would definitely suggest buying level 1 staves, refining them, and then see where it goes. I had a +7 wand of my own creation after 32 failures and much stress at the end of CB. Enhancement Artist, ftw?

This post no longer exists.

Hard to explain. ;)

And to address the Wiki method listed, it hadn't been discovered until after I finished my testing. The only reason I suggest my method is because if you have the Elrue and Lix to share, and have a lot of free time, you can log your successes and failures with weapons based on what you find.

I used a full inventory of Elrue, Lix, and Xir in my experimentation. Also, I strongly advise against refining level 30+ equipment unless you are financially stable and can afford the loss of breaking a weapon. It's tough, not gonna lie.

well time to let you on a little secret. me n a friend mapped out some of the stuff, and i can get a 2hand axe to +6 wihtout fail, and hm a wand to +4 without fail. the reason behind this is that there are patterns, different sets. and each set corrisonds better or worse with a type of item, and it's tier. the rest you can find out. but to be honest...upgrading is useless unless you are rich. the stones them selves cost around 1s each, and the upgrade has to hit +5 or +6 to even have any real affect.

to be honest i dont think there are any pattern..... just the plain c++ random method. I dont have any proof for that, but i dont think the devs made a complicated upgrading system. Becouse they wouldnt gain anything from it.

The only pattern i use is: if the enchantemt fails, dont enchant again. The chance of failing again is high. Wait some time. But if thats true or not... i dont know.

Okay, I don't know why, but I've tried that before and never ever saw the %. Where is it SUPPOSED to be displayed?

I used math. And had literally 100+ trials and logged which square it landed on.

For example, I'll list part of my log:

T62 - NE2 - FRT - F - D1
T63 - NE2 - FRB - S - U1
T64 - BE2 - FRR - S - U1
T65 - NE2 - FLB - F - N/A
T66 - NE2 - T - S - U1
T67 - NL2 - B - S - U1
T68 - LL2 - FRB - F - B

First column: T# (i.e. T62) = Trial Number

Second column: First letter stands for type of stone, followed by letters and numbers determining the stone. NE2 is Normal Elrue [2], BE2 is Blessed Elrue [2], and so on.

Third Column: Position where the box landed. For example, FRT is Far Right Top, FRB is Far Right Bottom, etc.

Fourth Column: Success or Fail.

Fifth Column: Effect of attempt. U1 means upgraded 1, U2 would be upgraded 2, D1 would be downgrade 1, B would be break.

In other words: You will use what you learned in math class in life. It took me a couple days of nolifing to get my results.

so um.. wanna share your final results? pretty please? Which stone in which box has a higher % of success rate?

or would you like some help analysing the data you've gathered. I'm willing to help if you like... I've finished my B Commerce degree and is working as a accountant.. i'm quite sensitive to numbers and correlations... =)

I knew it. You graduated from uni so you can find out the enhancing pattern in Fiesta, didn't you? D:<

@Triumph: and did those trials help you much in your enhancements afterwards?

Got a +7 a few times, +8 once, but they always broke before +9... T_T

For me, the Top Left, Top, Top Right, and Bottom Right boxes seemed to work the most. The Bottom-most box that Genkaku said worked for him a lot had approximately 9.67% success rate.

By the way, clerics and archers got their faces back.

hm 9.67%, also known as 29 out of 300.... nice

anyway i dont think there should be anyway to improve the result these way.

But the usual random generators arent truly random, and if there arent correctly initialized the result can be laughable. So it may be possible to notice a tendency in ure statistic. But these wasnt the intentension of the devs. That is what i think.

But a word of advise: the position u place the stone isnt a factor. Nor the resulting position. Both should be just visual.

P.S.: Once again. These are only assumptions based on what i saw ingame. I didnt reversed the enchanting process. Thats why i dont have any hard proofs.


Edit: If ure theory of the static result positions is true. It would mean that success chance is always 12,5% No matter where u place the stone.

I'm never refining anything again. I have managed a +3 level 15 staff, and a +2 level 20 wand. I have broken 2 wands, 2 pair of boots, a shirt and a helmet. Unfortunately, the items seem to break when I am least flush with copper. Luckily, I had my trusty back up staff, which truly sucked compared to the wand I had become accustomed to. From here on I will grind diligently, sell scrolls, and BUY equips already enhanced. I never have been much of a gambler, probably because I have the worst luck in the world. =)

Triumph
 

I started with with a lvl 15 mace and placed the Regular Elrue [1], in the bottom right box and first try got a +2 enhancement. Then I used a lvl 10 mace in the upper left box and got a +1 enhancement, then another lvl 10 mace in the upper box and got +1, then upper right box with the +1 lvl 10 and got +2 then repeated the +1 lvl 10 mace in the bottom right box and got it too +2 lvl 10. But, when I tried to enhance the first +2 lvl 10 mace to +3, it busted.
But at least I got a +2 lvl 10 and a +2 lvl 15 mace.

Thanks for the hard work and suggestion Triumph.

Cheers,
Moldy

OK, if there is a pattern or something...
1)the mid up box 2) to opposite and 1 box. 3)back to mid up. aka opposite and 1 to left.
4) 1 to left from mid top. 5) opposite + 1 right. 6) again the 1 for 4th.
7) mid right box. 8) opposite + 1 right
Ok and broke trying to gte +9 with that pattern but i use it all the time and 80% i get +6. And got over it twice.

I wonder if using Probability would work. Like P(E) where P represents probability and E represents the Event. Then like

Number of Possible Succesful Outcomes
---------------------------------------
Total Number of Possible Outcomes

Stuff like that... Heard some people use it for gambling...

There are no tricks. There are no patterns. You have a certain chance to succeed and a certain chance to fail, it is random.

The fact that there is a cash shop item that gives an additional 15% chance of success is proof of that.

yeah but as i get there are mostly 2 spots where it'll land...1 is success another is breaking, rarely degrade or nothing.
Btw you can see if you broke the wep since the start of refining, the wep for example disappears from inv if you break :P if you keep your eye on that you wont be like GO GO GO DONT FAIL ME !! xD
+ another thing is making new chars to refine n see if you got it or broke/failed by seeing titles :P
just if you know that you failed or succeeded makes you feel better, atleast for me it does :)

Just enhance, go off somewhere and not care about it. If it breaks, too bad, if it enhances; celebrate.